Mantova 3-0 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 17 Mar 2026

📅17/03/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.95
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 32% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.39
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
15%
5.21
X/2
17%
6.07
X/X
12%
4.38
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
8%
4.3
2/X
5%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+2.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mantova EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 36%
+13% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -15%
1.44/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.17
+11% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
361 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 81%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
17.9 Crosses 17.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mantova
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Cesena
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.54 xG 1.69
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
478 Passes 299
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.12.2025 Cesena Cesena 3-2 HT 1-2 Mantova Mantova İTB
01.05.2025 Mantova Mantova 3-0 HT 1-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
29.09.2024 Cesena Cesena 4-2 HT 3-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
05.05.2024 Mantova Mantova 1-2 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTC
08.05.2021 Cesena Cesena 2-1 HT 2-1 Mantova Mantova İTC
03.04.2021 Cesena Cesena 0-0 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mantova
3-0
AWAY Cesena
1.62 xG 0.69
47% Ball Possession 53%
20 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
376 Passes 410
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
34 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mantova vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mantova ran out comfortable winners over Cesena 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mantova as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Mantova had 47% of the ball to Cesena's 53%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 1.62 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cesena led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mantova and 1.83 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Mantova vs Cesena?

Mantova 3-0 Cesena in the Italy - Serie B on 17/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mantova vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mantova win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mantova 42%, draw 26%, Cesena 32%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mantova), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mantova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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