Paysandu 0-2 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 17 Apr 2025

📅17/04/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
62%
1.68
Over 2.5
38%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.66
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
17%
4.05
6+ Goals
9%
19.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 37% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.5pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-6.4pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paysandu EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +19%
1.26/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.39
-12% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
364 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 71%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
25.6 Crosses 14.9
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paysandu
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Chapecoense
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
0.90 xG 1.09
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
252 Passes 244
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 4
10.10.2024 Paysandu Paysandu 2-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
23.06.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-2 HT 1-1 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
25.09.2013 Paysandu Paysandu 2-1 HT 2-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
12.06.2013 Chapecoense Chapecoense 3-2 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paysandu
0-2
AWAY Chapecoense
0.96 xG 1.34
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
403 Passes 229
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 9
33 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paysandu vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense saw off Paysandu 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Paysandu at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paysandu had 62% of the ball to Chapecoense's 38%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 0.96 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Paysandu had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Paysandu and 1.25 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Paysandu vs Chapecoense?

Paysandu 0-2 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paysandu vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paysandu win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Paysandu 47%, draw 29%, Chapecoense 24%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Paysandu) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paysandu) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
17 Apr 2025
02:00 Avai vs Operario PR Analysis →
03:00 Coritiba vs Novorizontino Analysis →