Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Persebaya Surabaya v Madura United — Team-Based Signals
Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-0
Persebaya Surabaya
ENDL1
2-2
HT 1-1
Madura United
ENDL1
Persebaya Surabaya 1-2 Madura United — Actual Match Statistics
Madura United squeezed past Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
This one beat our numbers. Persebaya Surabaya carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Persebaya Surabaya had 66% of the ball to Madura United's 34%, shots finished 27-5.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Persebaya Surabaya had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 0.50 for Madura United.
What was the final score of Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United?
Persebaya Surabaya 1-2 Madura United in the Indonesia League 1 on 17/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Persebaya Surabaya win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Persebaya Surabaya 55%, draw 23%, Madura United 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya), BTTS No went the other way.