Hartberg 3-2 Swarovski Tirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.65
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
3.44
6+ Goals
12%
12.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.41
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
15%
4.46
X/2
13%
8.6
X/X
10%
5.19
2/1
6%
22.9
2/2
10%
6.59
2/X
10%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.0pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.3pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartberg EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +2%
1.62/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.58
+1% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 72%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
19.3 Crosses 16.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartberg
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Swarovski Tirol
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.66 xG 0.79
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
405 Passes 286
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2025 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-3 HT 0-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
09.02.2025 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
26.09.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-0 HT 0-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
03.03.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-0 HT 1-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
07.10.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 3-0 HT 0-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
06.05.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 5-0 HT 4-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartberg
3-2
AWAY Swarovski Tirol
2.63 xG 0.49
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
292 Passes 293
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hartberg vs Swarovski Tirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartberg edged past Swarovski Tirol 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hartberg as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hartberg had 49% of the ball to Swarovski Tirol's 51%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 2.63 to 0.49 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hartberg's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hartberg had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Hartberg and 0.33 for Swarovski Tirol.

What was the final score of Hartberg vs Swarovski Tirol?

Hartberg 3-2 Swarovski Tirol in the Austria - Bundesliga on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartberg vs Swarovski Tirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hartberg win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Hartberg 45%, draw 26%, Swarovski Tirol 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hartberg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hartberg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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