Gimcheon Sangmu 1-1 Jeju United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.61
Draw
31%
3.8
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.15
Over 2.5
44%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.34
2-3 Goals
41%
1.93
4-5 Goals
22%
3.07
6+ Goals
10%
9.37
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.34 — our 27% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.05
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
9%
14.5
X/1
14%
4.3
X/2
8%
10.5
X/X
13%
5.98
2/1
7%
21.1
2/2
11%
8.03
2/X
9%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
58%
-15.5pp
31%
Draw
23%
+8.1pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+7.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
43%
+13.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
57%
-13.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gimcheon Sangmu EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Jeju United EU Bookmakers 22%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -14%
2.00/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.85
+9% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
359 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.7 Crosses 14.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gimcheon Sangmu
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Jeju United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.90 xG 1.57
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
352 Passes 342
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.02.2025 Jeju United Jeju United 2-3 HT 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
01.09.2024 Jeju United Jeju United 1-0 HT 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
18.05.2024 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 1-0 HT 0-0 Jeju United Jeju United GKOK
13.04.2024 Jeju United Jeju United 0-2 HT 0-2 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOK
10.09.2022 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 1-2 HT 1-1 Jeju United Jeju United GKOK
05.07.2022 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 4-0 HT 2-0 Jeju United Jeju United GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gimcheon Sangmu
1-1
AWAY Jeju United
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
314 Passes 241
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
27 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gimcheon Sangmu vs Jeju United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gimcheon Sangmu and Jeju United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Gimcheon Sangmu at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gimcheon Sangmu had 54% of the ball to Jeju United's 46%, shots finished 19-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gimcheon Sangmu had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Gimcheon Sangmu and 0.83 for Jeju United.

What was the final score of Gimcheon Sangmu vs Jeju United?

Gimcheon Sangmu 1-1 Jeju United in the South Kore - K League Classic on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gimcheon Sangmu vs Jeju United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gimcheon Sangmu 42%, draw 31%, Jeju United 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gimcheon Sangmu) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gimcheon Sangmu) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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