Junior 2-1 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
63%
-11.3pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.8pp
23%
Away Win
15%
+8.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.1pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Junior EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 18%
+3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
1.57/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.47
+9% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -2%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
350 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 73%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
17.6 Crosses 12.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Junior
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.86 xG 1.04
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
238 Passes 332
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2024 Junior Junior 2-1 HT 2-1 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
12.02.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-0 HT 1-0 Junior Junior KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Junior
2-1
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.46 xG 0.79
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 0
343 Passes 320
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Junior vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Junior edged past Fortaleza CEIF 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Junior as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Junior had 52% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 48%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 1.46 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Junior and 1.50 for Fortaleza CEIF.

What was the final score of Junior vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Junior 2-1 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Junior vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Junior win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Junior 52%, draw 25%, Fortaleza CEIF 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Junior) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Junior) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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