Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-0 CDS Tampico Madero — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.5pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.2pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.1pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY CDS Tampico Madero EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +6%
1.71/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/0.85
+6% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +79%
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
1W-2D-3L
AWAY CDS Tampico Madero
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.05.2026 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero 0-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
19.01.2026 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero 0-1 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
24.11.2025 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero 1-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
21.11.2025 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-1 HT 0-1 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero MEK2
10.08.2025 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero MEK2
30.03.2025 CDS Tampico Madero CDS Tampico Madero 2-1 HT 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
1-0
AWAY CDS Tampico Madero
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs CDS Tampico Madero
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos edged past CDS Tampico Madero 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tepatitlán de Morelos as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Tepatitlán de Morelos had 39% of the ball to CDS Tampico Madero's 61%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CDS Tampico Madero led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 0.67 for CDS Tampico Madero.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs CDS Tampico Madero?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-0 CDS Tampico Madero in the Mexico - Primera A on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs CDS Tampico Madero?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 44%, draw 32%, CDS Tampico Madero 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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