Hegelmann II 4-2 Babrungas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 17 Jun 2025

📅17/06/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.4
Draw
20%
4.62
Away
56%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
5%
X/2
28%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
15%
+8.3pp
20%
Draw
18%
+2.2pp
56%
Away Win
66%
-10.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hegelmann II EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Babrungas EU Bookmakers 71%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.63/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/0.98
+66% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -11%
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
216 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 438 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hegelmann II
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Babrungas
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
5 Total Shots 12
0 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.10.2024 Babrungas Babrungas 2-1 Hegelmann II LIT1
08.06.2024 Hegelmann II 0-4 HT 0-2 Babrungas Babrungas LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hegelmann II
4-2
AWAY Babrungas
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hegelmann II vs Babrungas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann II saw off Babrungas 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Babrungas at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Hegelmann II had 49% of the ball to Babrungas's 51%, shots finished 10-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Babrungas led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Hegelmann II and 3.00 for Babrungas.

What was the final score of Hegelmann II vs Babrungas?

Hegelmann II 4-2 Babrungas in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 17/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hegelmann II vs Babrungas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Babrungas win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Hegelmann II 24%, draw 20%, Babrungas 56%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Babrungas), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Babrungas) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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