26/10/2024
·
14:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-1
2nd Score
3-1
Babrungas vs Hegelmann II Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
20%
Draw
22%
29%
Away Win
25%
44%
Under 2.5
31%
56%
Over 2.5
69%
52%
BTTS Yes
67%
48%
BTTS No
33%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Babrungas v Hegelmann II — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Babrungas
EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY
Hegelmann II
EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% /
+1%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-9% /
-9%
2.31/0.80
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.63/2.04
+37%
/
+26%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+48%
/
-23%
53%
Ball Possession
47%
13
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
422 · 85%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
296 · 77%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
1.6
Yellow Cards
1.0
Babrungas vs Hegelmann II Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Babrungas
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Hegelmann II
4.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
44%
Ball Possession
56%
12
Total Shots
5
9
Shots on Target
0
7
Corners
4
1
Yellow Cards
2
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Babrungas vs Hegelmann II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Babrungas edged past Hegelmann II 2-1.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Babrungas as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Babrungas vs Hegelmann II?
Babrungas 2-1 Hegelmann II in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Babrungas vs Hegelmann II?
Before kick-off our model rated a Babrungas win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Babrungas 51%, draw 20%, Hegelmann II 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Babrungas), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Babrungas)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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More Lithuania - 1st Division
26 Oct 2024