Kauno Zalgiris II 2-1 BFA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
37%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.38
Over 2.5
57%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-2.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.9pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kauno Zalgiris II EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY BFA EU Bookmakers 43%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.81/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.83
+26% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -31%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
328 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kauno Zalgiris II
1W-0D-1L
AWAY BFA
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
21.08.2023 Kauno Zalgiris II Kauno Zalgiris II 2-0 HT 0-0 BFA BFA LIT1
01.04.2023 BFA BFA 1-0 HT 0-0 Kauno Zalgiris II Kauno Zalgiris II LIT1
POST-MATCH Kauno Zalgiris II vs BFA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kauno Zalgiris II squeezed past BFA 2-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Kauno Zalgiris II found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kauno Zalgiris II and 0.50 for BFA.

What was the final score of Kauno Zalgiris II vs BFA?

Kauno Zalgiris II 2-1 BFA in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kauno Zalgiris II vs BFA?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kauno Zalgiris II win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Kauno Zalgiris II 39%, draw 24%, BFA 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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