Chorley 1-1 Hereford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.99
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
17.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 31% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-3.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.5pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chorley EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Hereford FC EU Bookmakers 37%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.34/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.14
-6% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chorley
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Hereford FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Hereford FC Hereford FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Chorley Chorley İCON
28.10.2023 Chorley Chorley 1-2 HT 0-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
07.03.2023 Chorley Chorley 2-0 HT 0-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
06.12.2022 Hereford FC Hereford FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
29.01.2022 Chorley Chorley 3-2 HT 0-1 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
06.11.2021 Hereford FC Hereford FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chorley
1-1
AWAY Hereford FC
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 3
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chorley vs Hereford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chorley and Hereford FC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Chorley at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Chorley had 46% of the ball to Hereford FC's 54%, shots finished 14-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chorley had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Chorley and 1.00 for Hereford FC.

What was the final score of Chorley vs Hereford FC?

Chorley 1-1 Hereford FC in the England - Conference on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chorley vs Hereford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Chorley 41%, draw 29%, Hereford FC 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chorley), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chorley) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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