Kilmarnock 2-1 Dundee United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - League Cup, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.5
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
3.41
6+ Goals
11%
12.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.17
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
15%
5.16
X/2
14%
6.34
X/X
10%
4.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.95
2/2
14%
4.35
2/X
5%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.95 — our 10% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.7pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.7pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundee United EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.12/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.69
-21% / +80% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
339 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 223 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 2.0
Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kilmarnock
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Dundee United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.94 xG 1.78
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
205 Passes 273
66% Pass Accuracy 69%
27 Box Touches 31
21 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-0 HT 0-0 Dundee United Dundee United İKP
07.12.2024 Dundee United Dundee United 1-1 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
28.09.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 3-3 HT 0-1 Dundee United Dundee United İKP
24.05.2023 Dundee United Dundee United 0-3 HT 0-2 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
11.02.2023 Dundee United Dundee United 0-1 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKK
01.02.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-0 HT 1-0 Dundee United Dundee United İKP
POST-MATCH Kilmarnock vs Dundee United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kilmarnock nicked a narrow win over Dundee United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Kilmarnock as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kilmarnock and 0.67 for Dundee United.

What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs Dundee United?

Kilmarnock 2-1 Dundee United in the Scotland - League Cup on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kilmarnock vs Dundee United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kilmarnock win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kilmarnock 43%, draw 23%, Dundee United 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kilmarnock), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kilmarnock) ✓ BTTS Yes
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