NAC Breda 2-1 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.19
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.95
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
24%
3.64
6+ Goals
11%
15.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.22
1/2
8%
32.5
1/X
5%
12.7
X/1
14%
5.07
X/2
8%
6.36
X/X
12%
4.34
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
17%
4.56
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.7pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.6pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 34%
-14% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -9%
1.29/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.35
+3% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
317 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
21.7 Crosses 18.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.05 xG 1.44
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
363 Passes 306
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.05.2025 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
14.09.2024 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
21.04.2019 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-1 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
16.09.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-3 HT 1-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
13.03.2017 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-2 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
21.10.2016 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-1 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
2-1
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
2.06 xG 0.73
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
254 Passes 427
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda edged past Fortuna Sittard 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had NAC Breda as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 39% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 61%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.06 to 0.73 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold NAC Breda's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NAC Breda and 1.17 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard?

NAC Breda 2-1 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 44%, draw 22%, Fortuna Sittard 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NAC Breda), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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