Ordabasy Shymkent 2-3 Tobol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
29%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+1.9pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.1pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-4.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.5pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ordabasy Shymkent EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Tobol EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -14%
0.91/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/0.85
-21% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
250 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ordabasy Shymkent
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Tobol
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2 Corners 11
19.10.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
12.05.2024 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 1-0 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
25.02.2024 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 1-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZSK
04.11.2023 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 0-1 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZKK
27.08.2023 Tobol Tobol 0-0 HT 0-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
16.04.2023 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 4-1 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
POST-MATCH Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol squeezed past Ordabasy Shymkent 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 32% / 29% — and on the day Tobol made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ordabasy Shymkent and 0.67 for Tobol.

What was the final score of Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol?

Ordabasy Shymkent 2-3 Tobol in the Kazakistan - Super League on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ordabasy Shymkent win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ordabasy Shymkent 39%, draw 32%, Tobol 29%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ordabasy Shymkent), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ordabasy Shymkent) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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