Colchester 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 17 Sep 2024

📅17/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
42%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.96
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.13
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.96 — our 28% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
40%
-8.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
42%
Away Win
34%
+8.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.7pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colchester EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 38%
-35% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
0.75/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.03
-82% / -50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +113%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
275 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 76%
14.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.9
16.1 Crosses 7.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 0.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colchester
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.21 xG 1.72
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
253 Passes 493
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 35
11 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.08.2024 Colchester Colchester 2-0 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
26.12.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
19.08.2023 Colchester Colchester 2-3 HT 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
27.04.2019 Colchester Colchester 2-0 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
22.12.2018 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 HT 0-1 Colchester Colchester İN2
17.02.2015 Colchester Colchester 0-1 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colchester
2-1
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.02 xG 1.12
24% Ball Possession 76%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
162 Passes 687
65% Pass Accuracy 89%
9 Box Touches 26
4 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Colchester vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colchester squeezed past Milton Keynes Dons 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Milton Keynes Dons at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Colchester had 24% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 76%, shots finished 7-10, expected goals 1.02 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Colchester and 0.83 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Colchester vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Colchester 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - Futbol League Cup on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colchester vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Colchester 32%, draw 26%, Milton Keynes Dons 42%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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