Energie Cottbus 2-1 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 17 Sep 2025

📅17/09/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.46
2-3 Goals
42%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
8.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.55
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
18%
4.78
X/2
8%
7.61
X/X
10%
5.58
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.05
2/2
12%
5.19
2/X
8%
13.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.05 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+1.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.2pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Energie Cottbus EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -15%
2.25/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/2.11
+32% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -25%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 72%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
24.3 Crosses 17.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Energie Cottbus
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
362 Passes 324
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
29.03.2025 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 1-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
22.10.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-3 HT 1-1 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus AL3
02.03.2016 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 0-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
18.09.2015 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 1-0 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus AL3
21.02.2014 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 2-3 HT 0-3 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
23.08.2013 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 0-1 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Energie Cottbus
2-1
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 9
335 Passes 292
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Energie Cottbus vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Energie Cottbus squeezed past Erzgebirge Aue 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Energie Cottbus as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Energie Cottbus had 53% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 47%, shots finished 12-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.17 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Energie Cottbus vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Energie Cottbus 2-1 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 17/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Energie Cottbus vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Energie Cottbus win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Energie Cottbus 50%, draw 24%, Erzgebirge Aue 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Energie Cottbus), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Energie Cottbus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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