Birmingham Legion 1-4 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 17 Sep 2025

📅17/09/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.97
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.47
6+ Goals
8%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 32% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.39/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.36
-17% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +18%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 73%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
15.3 Crosses 16.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham Legion
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.43 xG 1.41
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
362 Passes 371
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2025 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-2 HT 1-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
12.09.2024 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 2-0 HT 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
12.05.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-1 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
09.05.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 6-4 HT 3-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion ABDK
22.10.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-3 HT 0-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
16.07.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham Legion
1-4
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
0.75 xG 1.72
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 1
318 Passes 397
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
9 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Birmingham Legion vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies swept aside Birmingham Legion 4-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 33% — and on the day Tampa Bay Rowdies made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Birmingham Legion had 46% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 54%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.75 to 1.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham Legion had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Birmingham Legion and 1.33 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.

What was the final score of Birmingham Legion vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Birmingham Legion 1-4 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 17/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham Legion vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham Legion win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Birmingham Legion 40%, draw 26%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 33%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham Legion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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