Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-2 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.76
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
28%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-1.9pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.5pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
1.68/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.42
+3% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
21.2 Crosses 14.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Birmingham Legion
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.28 xG 1.30
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
394 Passes 331
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
12.09.2024 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 2-0 HT 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
12.05.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-1 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
09.05.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 6-4 HT 3-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion ABDK
22.10.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-3 HT 0-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
16.07.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
02.04.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
2-2
AWAY Birmingham Legion
1.88 xG 1.96
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 2
327 Passes 379
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 33
18 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies and Birmingham Legion couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Tampa Bay Rowdies at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 47% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 53%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 1.88 to 1.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham Legion led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 2.17 for Birmingham Legion.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-2 Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 51%, draw 23%, Birmingham Legion 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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