El Paso Locomotive 3-0 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 29% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.9pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.3pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 33%
-9% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +23%
1.22/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.31
+4% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
331 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
17.8 Crosses 11.1
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
1W-1D-4L
AWAY New Mexico United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.95 xG 1.18
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
359 Passes 356
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.04.2025 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-2 HT 1-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive ABDK
23.03.2025 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
28.07.2024 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-2 HT 1-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
07.04.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-2 HT 1-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
02.07.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 0-1 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
04.06.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-1 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
3-0
AWAY New Mexico United
2.16 xG 0.92
40% Ball Possession 60%
22 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
240 Passes 383
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive ran out comfortable winners over New Mexico United 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; El Paso Locomotive found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 40% of the ball to New Mexico United's 60%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 2.16 to 0.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for El Paso Locomotive and 1.50 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United?

El Paso Locomotive 3-0 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 39%, draw 30%, New Mexico United 31%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✗ Under 2.5
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