New Mexico United 2-2 El Paso Locomotive — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 17 Apr 2025

📅17/04/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.0
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.95
Over 2.5
56%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.41
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.24
6+ Goals
12%
11.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+0.3pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.8pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
344 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
Crosses 19.0
Yellow Cards 7.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.15 xG 0.88
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
322 Passes 367
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.03.2025 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
28.07.2024 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-2 HT 1-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
07.04.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-2 HT 1-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
02.07.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 0-1 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
04.06.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-1 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
03.09.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-2 HT 1-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
2-2
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
2.53 xG 0.85
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
442 Passes 309
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United and El Paso Locomotive couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was New Mexico United at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, New Mexico United had 57% of the ball to El Paso Locomotive's 43%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 2.53 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for New Mexico United and 1.00 for El Paso Locomotive.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive?

New Mexico United 2-2 El Paso Locomotive in the USA - Open Cup on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs El Paso Locomotive?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 47%, draw 21%, El Paso Locomotive 32%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New Mexico United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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