Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sacramento Republic v El Farolito — Team-Based Signals
Sacramento Republic 1-0 El Farolito — Actual Match Statistics
Sacramento Republic edged past El Farolito 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Sacramento Republic had 51% of the ball to El Farolito's 49%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.21 to 0.64.
What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito?
Sacramento Republic 1-0 El Farolito in the USA - Open Cup on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 54%, draw 22%, El Farolito 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.