Sacramento Republic 1-0 El Farolito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 17 Apr 2025

📅17/04/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
25%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
5%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
67%
-13.4pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.2pp
25%
Away Win
13%
+11.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.4pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY El Farolito EU Bookmakers 16%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +41% / +41%
0.95/0.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.94
-11% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / +78%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
405 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 77%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
8.0 Crosses 34.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 4.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
1-0
AWAY El Farolito
1.21 xG 0.64
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
263 Passes 209
74% Pass Accuracy 65%
24 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 26
9 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic edged past El Farolito 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 51% of the ball to El Farolito's 49%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.21 to 0.64.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito?

Sacramento Republic 1-0 El Farolito in the USA - Open Cup on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs El Farolito?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 54%, draw 22%, El Farolito 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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