Naples 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 17 Apr 2025

📅17/04/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
11%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
36%
+5.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-4.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naples EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -53% / -53%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -38%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
267 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
Crosses 27.6
Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naples
1-1
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.36 xG 1.82
39% Ball Possession 61%
15 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 9
297 Passes 526
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 36
23 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Naples vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naples and Tampa Bay Rowdies shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Naples at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Naples had 39% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 61%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.36 to 1.82.

What was the final score of Naples vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Naples 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USA - Open Cup on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naples vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naples win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Naples 42%, draw 26%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Naples) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Naples) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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