Indy Eleven 1-0 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 17 Apr 2025

📅17/04/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
2.95
6+ Goals
11%
9.11
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 27% vs market 19.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-7.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.9pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 28%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+44% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 79%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.0 Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Indy Eleven
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Miami FC
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.08 xG 0.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
353 Passes 345
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2025 Miami FC Miami FC 1-3 HT 0-3 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
29.09.2024 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 4-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
13.05.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 1-3 HT 0-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
03.09.2023 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 1-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
13.08.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
03.07.2022 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 0-1 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Indy Eleven
1-0
AWAY Miami FC
1.64 xG 0.42
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
14 Corners 4
378 Passes 385
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 13
34 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Indy Eleven vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Indy Eleven edged past Miami FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Indy Eleven as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Indy Eleven had 51% of the ball to Miami FC's 49%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.64 to 0.42 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Indy Eleven's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Indy Eleven had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Indy Eleven and 0.50 for Miami FC.

What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs Miami FC?

Indy Eleven 1-0 Miami FC in the USA - Open Cup on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 44%, draw 25%, Miami FC 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Indy Eleven), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Indy Eleven) ✓ BTTS No
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