El Paso Locomotive 1-2 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.27
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.61
6+ Goals
10%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 27% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
-0.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+1.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.7pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 43%
-12% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -11%
1.19/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.13
-12% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 76%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
17.4 Crosses 14.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
2W-1D-3L
AWAY New Mexico United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.00 xG 1.11
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
410 Passes 292
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.04.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-2 HT 1-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
02.07.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 0-1 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
04.06.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-1 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
03.09.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-2 HT 1-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
20.03.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-2 HT 1-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
15.08.2021 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-1 HT 1-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United squeezed past El Paso Locomotive 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; New Mexico United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for El Paso Locomotive and 1.33 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United?

El Paso Locomotive 1-2 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated an New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 34%, draw 26%, New Mexico United 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✓ BTTS Yes
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