Orange County SC 2-1 FC Tulsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.92
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.69
6+ Goals
9%
15.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 34% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.2pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.21/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.19
+5% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
15.6 Crosses 13.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FC Tulsa
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.01 xG 1.03
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
376 Passes 317
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2024 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-0 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
31.03.2024 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
18.06.2023 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-3 HT 0-1 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
14.05.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 5-1 HT 5-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
22.09.2019 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-1 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
17.03.2019 Orange County SC Orange County SC 3-5 HT 2-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
2-1
AWAY FC Tulsa
1.73 xG 1.25
53% Ball Possession 47%
24 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 3
214 Passes 173
69% Pass Accuracy 64%
32 Box Touches 13
30 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orange County SC edged past FC Tulsa 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Orange County SC made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Orange County SC had 53% of the ball to FC Tulsa's 47%, shots finished 24-9, expected goals 1.73 to 1.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orange County SC had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Orange County SC and 1.00 for FC Tulsa.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa?

Orange County SC 2-1 FC Tulsa in the USL Championship on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orange County SC win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 38%, draw 26%, FC Tulsa 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orange County SC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orange County SC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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