Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-1 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.33
Over 2.5
50%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
23%
2.82
6+ Goals
12%
7.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-11.0pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.1pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
39%
+11.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
61%
-11.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.7pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +2%
2.07/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.47
+24% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
377 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.4 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Birmingham Legion
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.17 xG 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
380 Passes 344
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
09.05.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 6-4 HT 3-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion ABDK
22.10.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-3 HT 0-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
16.07.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
02.04.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
24.09.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 HT 1-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
14.03.2022 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-1 HT 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
0-1
AWAY Birmingham Legion
1.57 xG 0.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
14 Corners 1
384 Passes 265
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 8
34 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham Legion squeezed past Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Tampa Bay Rowdies at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 58% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 42%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 1.57 to 0.50 — on chances, Tampa Bay Rowdies could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham Legion led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 2.00 for Birmingham Legion.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-1 Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 47%, draw 25%, Birmingham Legion 28%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies)
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
12 May 2024
00:00 Detroit City vs Phoenix Rising Analysis →
02:00 Hartford Athletic vs Colorado Springs Analysis →
02:30 Louisville City vs Orange County SC Analysis →
02:30 Rhode Island vs Sacramento Republic Analysis →
03:30 San Antonio vs Las Vegas Lights Analysis →
03:30 FC Tulsa vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Analysis →