Rhode Island 2-2 Sacramento Republic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
35%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.85
No
59%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.16
6+ Goals
8%
20.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 34% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.2pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.0pp
35%
Away Win
40%
-5.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.7pp
59%
BTTS No
50%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rhode Island EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 45%
-54% / -54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.73/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.02
-25% / -54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +42%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
305 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
41.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
34.0 Crosses 15.5
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rhode Island
2-2
AWAY Sacramento Republic
2.13 xG 1.56
46% Ball Possession 54%
20 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
284 Passes 343
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
39 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rhode Island vs Sacramento Republic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rhode Island and Sacramento Republic couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 31% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rhode Island had 46% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 54%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.13 to 1.56.

What was the final score of Rhode Island vs Sacramento Republic?

Rhode Island 2-2 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rhode Island vs Sacramento Republic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Rhode Island 34%, draw 31%, Sacramento Republic 35%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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