Louisville City 3-0 Orange County SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.77
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 25% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
62%
-9.4pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.0pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.2pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 20%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +16%
2.01/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.40
+7% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
21.4 Crosses 11.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Orange County SC
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.34 xG 0.89
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
324 Passes 259
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
14 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
12.03.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-3 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
19.06.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 3-1 HT 1-1 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
3-0
AWAY Orange County SC
1.89 xG 0.92
50% Ball Possession 50%
28 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
339 Passes 341
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Orange County SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City swept aside Orange County SC 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Louisville City had 50% of the ball to Orange County SC's 50%, shots finished 28-7, expected goals 1.89 to 0.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Louisville City and 1.00 for Orange County SC.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Orange County SC?

Louisville City 3-0 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Orange County SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 53%, draw 23%, Orange County SC 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5
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