Alajuelense 2-2 Municipal Liberia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Costa Rica - Premier League, 17 Oct 2024

📅17/10/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-10.1pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.3pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+5.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.3pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alajuelense EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Municipal Liberia EU Bookmakers 17%
+1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.94/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/2.80
-2% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +139% / -37%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
441 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alajuelense
2W-3D-0L
AWAY Municipal Liberia
2.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.07.2024 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 1-2 HT 0-2 Alajuelense Alajuelense KOSTA
27.03.2024 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 0-4 HT 0-3 Alajuelense Alajuelense KOSTA
21.01.2024 Alajuelense Alajuelense 0-0 HT 0-0 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
02.10.2023 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 3-3 HT 0-2 Alajuelense Alajuelense KOSTA
30.07.2023 Alajuelense Alajuelense 3-3 HT 0-2 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alajuelense
2-2
AWAY Municipal Liberia
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 0
POST-MATCH Alajuelense vs Municipal Liberia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alajuelense and Municipal Liberia shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Alajuelense at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Alajuelense had 67% of the ball to Municipal Liberia's 33%, shots finished 15-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Alajuelense had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.40 goals for Alajuelense and 1.40 for Municipal Liberia.

What was the final score of Alajuelense vs Municipal Liberia?

Alajuelense 2-2 Municipal Liberia in the Costa Rica - Premier League on 17/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alajuelense vs Municipal Liberia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alajuelense win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Alajuelense 56%, draw 24%, Municipal Liberia 20%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Alajuelense), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alajuelense) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOSTA More Costa Rica - Premier League
17 Oct 2024
01:00 Perez Zeledon vs Santos de Guapiles Analysis →
05:00 Puntarenas FC vs CS Herediano Analysis →