Motor Lublin 2-5 Katowice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Oct 2025

📅17/10/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.01
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
2.88
6+ Goals
12%
8.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.18
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
9%
12.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
22%
5.45
X/2
9%
6.51
X/X
10%
5.29
2/1
8%
23.55
2/2
13%
4.17
2/X
8%
12.8
Value flag · X/1 at 5.45 — our 22% vs market 14.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-3.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.8pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Katowice EU Bookmakers 36%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.22/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.73
-9% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
23.0 Crosses 20.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Katowice
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.46
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
288 Passes 403
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.02.2025 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 3-2 HT 2-1 Katowice Katowice POL
16.08.2024 Katowice Katowice 0-0 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
19.02.2024 Katowice Katowice 2-0 HT 1-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL1
06.08.2023 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-1 HT 0-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
19.05.2021 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 2-1 HT 1-0 Katowice Katowice POL2
29.11.2020 Katowice Katowice 2-1 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
2-5
AWAY Katowice
1.60 xG 2.18
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
314 Passes 326
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 33
38 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Katowice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice swept aside Motor Lublin 5-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Motor Lublin at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 51% of the ball to Katowice's 49%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.60 to 2.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.33 for Katowice.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Katowice?

Motor Lublin 2-5 Katowice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Katowice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motor Lublin win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 44%, draw 27%, Katowice 29%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Motor Lublin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Motor Lublin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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