Don Benito 1-0 UD San Fernando — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 17 Nov 2024

📅17/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.2pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-1.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.0pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Don Benito EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY UD San Fernando EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
0.88/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.01
-27% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Don Benito
1W-1D-0L
AWAY UD San Fernando
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.05.2022 Don Benito Don Benito 2-2 HT 2-0 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando İS4
09.01.2022 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando 1-3 HT 1-1 Don Benito Don Benito İS4
POST-MATCH Don Benito vs UD San Fernando
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Don Benito nicked a narrow win over UD San Fernando 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Don Benito as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Don Benito had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Don Benito and 1.50 for UD San Fernando.

What was the final score of Don Benito vs UD San Fernando?

Don Benito 1-0 UD San Fernando in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 17/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Don Benito vs UD San Fernando?

Before kick-off our model rated a Don Benito win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Don Benito 44%, draw 28%, UD San Fernando 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Don Benito), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Don Benito) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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