Gernika 1-0 SD Logrones — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 17 Nov 2024

📅17/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
27%
2.88
Away
39%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.45
Over 2.5
42%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.16
No
55%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
31%
-4.2pp
39%
Away Win
37%
+2.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
65%
-7.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
35%
+7.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.6pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gernika EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY SD Logrones EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +51% / +51%
1.14/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.49/0.49
+8% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +111%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gernika
1-0
AWAY SD Logrones
49% Ball Possession 51%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gernika vs SD Logrones
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gernika squeezed past SD Logrones 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Gernika made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Gernika had 49% of the ball to SD Logrones's 51%, shots finished 6-12.

What was the final score of Gernika vs SD Logrones?

Gernika 1-0 SD Logrones in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 17/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gernika vs SD Logrones?

Before kick-off our model rated an SD Logrones win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gernika 34%, draw 27%, SD Logrones 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (SD Logrones) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SD Logrones) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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