FC Eindhoven 1-3 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - KNVB Cup, 17 Dec 2024

📅17/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
49%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.15
Over 2.5
58%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.94
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
2.9
6+ Goals
15%
8.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
28%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
34%
-5.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
49%
Away Win
41%
+8.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
43%
-1.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
57%
+1.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.1pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +51% / +51%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
317 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Eindhoven
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Excelsior
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.78 xG 1.55
49% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
309 Passes 324
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.11.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 2-0 HT 2-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
07.02.2022 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 4-1 HT 3-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
30.10.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 3-4 HT 1-2 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
15.01.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
09.10.2020 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
28.02.2020 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Eindhoven
1-3
AWAY Excelsior
0.50 xG 1.47
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 4
337 Passes 338
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Eindhoven vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior saw off FC Eindhoven 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, FC Eindhoven had 51% of the ball to Excelsior's 49%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 0.50 to 1.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Eindhoven had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.50 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of FC Eindhoven vs Excelsior?

FC Eindhoven 1-3 Excelsior in the Netherlands - KNVB Cup on 17/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Eindhoven vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated an Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split FC Eindhoven 28%, draw 23%, Excelsior 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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