Galatasaray 4-1 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Cup, 18 Jan 2024

📅18/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.18
Draw
19%
7.13
Away
21%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.68
Over 2.5
60%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
9.76
2-3 Goals
34%
2.51
4-5 Goals
30%
2.31
6+ Goals
12%
3.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.25
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
30.5
X/1
23%
3.67
X/2
8%
32.0
X/X
10%
13.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.75
2/2
8%
21.75
2/X
4%
28.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.75 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
80%
-20.2pp
19%
Draw
11%
+8.2pp
20%
Away Win
8%
+12.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
24%
+16.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
76%
-16.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 11%
-11% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
2.61/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.38/1.33
+1% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / +82%
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
461 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Galatasaray
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Ümraniyespor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.88 xG 1.15
63% Ball Possession 37%
27 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
443 Passes 220
83% Pass Accuracy 70%
39 Box Touches 15
30 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
01.02.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3-2 HT 1-2 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor TSL
19.08.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 0-1 HT 0-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galatasaray
4-1
AWAY Ümraniyespor
68% Ball Possession 32%
36 Total Shots 4
18 Shots on Target 2
14 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Galatasaray vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galatasaray cruised past Ümraniyespor 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Galatasaray as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Galatasaray had 68% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 32%, shots finished 36-4.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Galatasaray had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Galatasaray and 1.00 for Ümraniyespor.

What was the final score of Galatasaray vs Ümraniyespor?

Galatasaray 4-1 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - Cup on 18/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galatasaray vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Galatasaray win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Galatasaray 60%, draw 19%, Ümraniyespor 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Galatasaray), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Galatasaray) ✓ Over 2.5
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