Kayserispor 1-2 Gençlerbirliği — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Cup, 18 Jan 2024

Kayserispor
1-2 HT 1-1
Gençlerbirliği
📅18/01/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Turkey - Cup – 2023/2024

Kayserispor vs Gençlerbirliği Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.45
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.0
Over 2.5
58%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.7
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.24
6+ Goals
13%
11.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.24 — our 28% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.78
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
17.2
X/1
17%
3.62
X/2
8%
13.2
X/X
11%
5.94
2/1
11%
22.6
2/2
8%
10.55
2/X
5%
18.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
64%
-6.5pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.5pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+7.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
46%
-4.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
54%
+4.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.7pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kayserispor v Gençlerbirliği — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 18%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
3.23/0.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.30
+48% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +52%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
395 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 223 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.0 Yellow Cards –

Kayserispor vs Gençlerbirliği Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kayserispor
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.50 xG 1.70
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
383 Passes 310
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.12.2022 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-0 HT 0-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği TÜK
20.04.2021 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-2 HT 1-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği TSL
28.12.2020 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 3-2 HT 1-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
20.06.2020 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-0 HT 1-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği TSL
09.11.2019 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-1 HT 1-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
15.04.2018 Kayserispor Kayserispor 3-2 HT 2-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği TSL

Kayserispor 1-2 Gençlerbirliği — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kayserispor
1-2
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kayserispor vs Gençlerbirliği
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gençlerbirliği squeezed past Kayserispor 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Kayserispor at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Kayserispor had 59% of the ball to Gençlerbirliği's 41%, shots finished 13-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kayserispor had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Kayserispor and 1.50 for Gençlerbirliği.

What was the final score of Kayserispor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Kayserispor 1-2 Gençlerbirliği in the Turkey - Cup on 18/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kayserispor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kayserispor win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Kayserispor 58%, draw 21%, Gençlerbirliği 21%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Kayserispor), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kayserispor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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