Chelmsford City 2-1 AFC Hornchurch — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under
56%
1.78
Over
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No Pick
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.86
2-3
44%
1.72
4-5
19%
3.65
6+
9%
15.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.86 — our 28% vs market 27.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+5.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.7pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelmsford City The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Hornchurch The Market 29%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.68/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.39
+3% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelmsford City
1W-0D-0L
AWAY AFC Hornchurch
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
0 Corners 0
21.09.2024 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch 0-2 HT 0-2 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
POST-MATCH Chelmsford City vs AFC Hornchurch
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelmsford City edged past AFC Hornchurch 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chelmsford City as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Chelmsford City vs AFC Hornchurch?

Chelmsford City 2-1 AFC Hornchurch in the England - Conference on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelmsford City vs AFC Hornchurch?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelmsford City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Chelmsford City 44%, draw 26%, AFC Hornchurch 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelmsford City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelmsford City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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