Ilkeston Town 4-2 Morpeth Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
56%
-1.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.5pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.4pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilkeston Town EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Morpeth Town EU Bookmakers 25%
+11% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +17%
2.74/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/2.09
+46% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
396 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilkeston Town
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Morpeth Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
0 Corners 0
08.10.2024 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Ilkeston Town Ilkeston Town İNGNLP
18.11.2023 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Ilkeston Town Ilkeston Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Ilkeston Town vs Morpeth Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilkeston Town saw off Morpeth Town 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ilkeston Town as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ilkeston Town and 1.50 for Morpeth Town.

What was the final score of Ilkeston Town vs Morpeth Town?

Ilkeston Town 4-2 Morpeth Town in the England - Non League Premier on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilkeston Town vs Morpeth Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilkeston Town win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Ilkeston Town 54%, draw 23%, Morpeth Town 22%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilkeston Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ilkeston Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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