Atalanta vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atalanta v Napoli — Team-Based Signals
Atalanta vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Atalanta 2-3 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics
Napoli edged past Atalanta 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Atalanta at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Atalanta had 57% of the ball to Napoli's 43%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 0.70 to 0.79.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atalanta and 1.50 for Napoli.
What was the final score of Atalanta vs Napoli?
Atalanta 2-3 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Napoli?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 42%, draw 28%, Napoli 30%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.