Bologna 3-1 Monza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.71
Over
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.74
2-3
41%
1.74
4-5
19%
3.97
6+
9%
18.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.0
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.0
X/1
23%
3.88
X/2
9%
11.35
X/X
12%
4.74
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
6%
10.2
2/X
10%
18.45
Value flag · 2/X at 18.45 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
50%
Home Win
59%
-9.1pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.3pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.0pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bologna The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Monza The Market 20%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
1.70/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.68
-4% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +18%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
426 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 79%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
21.5 Crosses 10.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bologna
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Monza
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.37 xG 0.68
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
436 Passes 334
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
03.12.2024 Bologna Bologna 4-0 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTK
22.09.2024 Monza Monza 1-2 HT 1-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
13.04.2024 Bologna Bologna 0-0 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTA
28.09.2023 Monza Monza 0-0 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
12.02.2023 Bologna Bologna 0-1 HT 0-1 Monza Monza İTA
31.10.2022 Monza Monza 1-2 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bologna
3-1
AWAY Monza
1.85 xG 0.48
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 0
475 Passes 316
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 3
19 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bologna vs Monza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna beat Monza 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bologna as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bologna had 59% of the ball to Monza's 41%, shots finished 18-3, expected goals 1.85 to 0.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bologna had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bologna and 0.50 for Monza.

What was the final score of Bologna vs Monza?

Bologna 3-1 Monza in the Italy - Serie A on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bologna vs Monza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bologna win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Bologna 50%, draw 28%, Monza 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bologna) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bologna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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