KuPS Kuopio 3-4 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 29% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
+0.0pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.1pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.4pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 42%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
0.20/1.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.42/1.17
-86% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -65% / +21%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
274 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KuPS Kuopio
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.19 xG 0.61
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
404 Passes 415
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-0 HT 1-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
18.08.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 1-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
31.05.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-2 HT 1-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
27.01.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 0-2 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FLK
13.08.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 0-3 HT 0-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
23.04.2023 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 1-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
POST-MATCH KuPS Kuopio vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere edged past KuPS Kuopio 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Ilves Tampere made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 0.67 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of KuPS Kuopio vs Ilves Tampere?

KuPS Kuopio 3-4 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - League Cup on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KuPS Kuopio vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated a KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split KuPS Kuopio 35%, draw 30%, Ilves Tampere 35%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5
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