Ilves Tampere 1-0 KuPS Kuopio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 24 Sep 2024

📅24/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.79
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 26% vs market 21.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.0
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
10%
12.95
X/1
11%
4.93
X/2
9%
6.54
X/X
12%
4.97
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
12%
4.45
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-2.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 34%
+10% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +12%
1.20/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/0.88
+10% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
305 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 82%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
16.1 Crosses 16.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilves Tampere
2W-0D-4L
AWAY KuPS Kuopio
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.61 xG 1.23
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
416 Passes 394
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
18.08.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 1-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
31.05.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-2 HT 1-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
27.01.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 0-2 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FLK
13.08.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 0-3 HT 0-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
23.04.2023 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 1-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
11.02.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-0 HT 1-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
1-0
AWAY KuPS Kuopio
0.63 xG 1.05
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
413 Passes 443
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs KuPS Kuopio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere squeezed past KuPS Kuopio 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ilves Tampere as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 48% of the ball to KuPS Kuopio's 52%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.63 to 1.05 — the balance of chances actually favoured KuPS Kuopio.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ilves Tampere and 1.17 for KuPS Kuopio.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs KuPS Kuopio?

Ilves Tampere 1-0 KuPS Kuopio in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs KuPS Kuopio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 44%, draw 28%, KuPS Kuopio 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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