Necaxa 3-2 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.88
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 31% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
-0.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.4pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 39%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +10%
1.18/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.11
-6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +33%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
286 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
20.4 Crosses 16.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.00 xG 1.44
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
252 Passes 345
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.10.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-2 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
21.02.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
14.07.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
09.04.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
20.08.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-4 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
30.04.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
3-2
AWAY Guadalajara
0.88 xG 1.77
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
302 Passes 310
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa squeezed past Guadalajara 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Necaxa made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Necaxa had 50% of the ball to Guadalajara's 50%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 0.88 to 1.77 — the balance of chances actually favoured Guadalajara.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Necaxa and 1.83 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Guadalajara?

Necaxa 3-2 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 37%, draw 28%, Guadalajara 36%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Necaxa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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