Tigres UANL 2-1 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.43
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
27%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.68 — our 28% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
65%
-17.0pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.0pp
27%
Away Win
14%
+13.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.3pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
1.68/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.60
-5% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
389 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 76%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
24.0 Crosses 15.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Mazatlan
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.32 xG 1.17
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
396 Passes 302
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.10.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-0 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
17.03.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 5-1 HT 2-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
01.10.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-3 HT 1-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
09.04.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-2 HT 0-2 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
09.07.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
07.02.2022 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 4-3 HT 2-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
2-1
AWAY Mazatlan
0.77 xG 0.61
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
463 Passes 241
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 10
23 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL edged past Mazatlan 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 62% of the ball to Mazatlan's 38%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 0.77 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.67 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Mazatlan?

Tigres UANL 2-1 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 48%, draw 25%, Mazatlan 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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