RKC Waalwijk 1-1 Dordrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 18 Jan 2026

RKC Waalwijk
1-1 HT 1-1
Dordrecht
📅18/01/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

RKC Waalwijk vs Dordrecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.66
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.33
Over 2.5
59%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.6
No
39%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.61
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.72
6+ Goals
13%
7.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.14
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.05
X/1
21%
4.49
X/2
7%
9.77
X/X
7%
6.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.15
2/2
11%
7.01
2/X
5%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.15 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS Yes — 61% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
56%
-0.8pp
20%
Draw
23%
-2.8pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
39%
+1.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
61%
-1.6pp
61%
BTTS Yes
58%
+2.5pp
39%
BTTS No
42%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RKC Waalwijk v Dordrecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 25%
-21% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.38/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.71
-32% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
388 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
26.0 Crosses 16.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

RKC Waalwijk vs Dordrecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Dordrecht
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.00 xG 1.01
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
262 Passes 260
72% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.10.2025 Dordrecht Dordrecht 1-2 HT 1-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
19.04.2019 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 4-4 HT 0-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
30.11.2018 Dordrecht Dordrecht 2-0 HT 1-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
12.03.2018 Dordrecht Dordrecht 1-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
27.10.2017 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-0 HT 1-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
12.08.2017 Dordrecht Dordrecht 4-2 HT 2-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HAZ

RKC Waalwijk 1-1 Dordrecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
1-1
AWAY Dordrecht
0.71 xG 1.70
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
380 Passes 337
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 23
30 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs Dordrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RKC Waalwijk and Dordrecht shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had RKC Waalwijk at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, both teams to score (61%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 53% of the ball to Dordrecht's 47%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.71 to 1.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dordrecht led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 2.00 for Dordrecht.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs Dordrecht?

RKC Waalwijk 1-1 Dordrecht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 18/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs Dordrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a RKC Waalwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 55%, draw 20%, Dordrecht 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RKC Waalwijk), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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