Den Bosch 1-2 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 18 Jan 2026

📅18/01/2026 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.53
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.63
Over 2.5
57%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.91
2-3 Goals
37%
2.06
4-5 Goals
27%
2.48
6+ Goals
13%
5.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.87
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.85
X/1
15%
4.46
X/2
6%
11.85
X/X
7%
7.38
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
18.65
2/2
9%
8.23
2/X
8%
16.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.65 — our 9% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Den Bosch win — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
61%
-0.2pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.4pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+0.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
34%
+8.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
66%
-8.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.0pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -14%
1.52/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.60
-7% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
400 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
21.0 Crosses 15.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Den Bosch
2W-1D-3L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.83 xG 1.54
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
350 Passes 314
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2025 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-4 HT 2-2 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
18.01.2025 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 5-0 HT 4-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
30.10.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-1 HT 1-1 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOK
23.08.2024 Den Bosch Den Bosch 1-1 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
23.03.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-0 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
15.09.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 3-2 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Den Bosch
1-2
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.93 xG 0.51
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 3
388 Passes 278
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
63 Box Touches 21
35 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht edged past Den Bosch 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Den Bosch at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Den Bosch had 57% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 43%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.93 to 0.51 — the balance of chances actually favoured Den Bosch.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Den Bosch and 2.17 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht?

Den Bosch 1-2 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 18/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Den Bosch win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Den Bosch 61%, draw 20%, MVV Maastricht 19%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Den Bosch) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Den Bosch) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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