Den Bosch 1-1 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.52
2-3 Goals
35%
1.9
4-5 Goals
28%
2.9
6+ Goals
11%
8.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.84
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.35
X/1
12%
5.05
X/2
10%
7.02
X/X
11%
5.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
23.15
2/2
16%
4.51
2/X
9%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 6% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.2pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
1.27/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.49
+13% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 72%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
14.1 Crosses 13.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Den Bosch
3W-1D-2L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.53 xG 0.99
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
348 Passes 333
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.03.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-0 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
15.09.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 3-2 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
27.01.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 3-3 HT 2-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
22.10.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-1 HT 2-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
11.03.2022 Den Bosch Den Bosch 3-1 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
15.11.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Den Bosch
1-1
AWAY MVV Maastricht
3.01 xG 1.59
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
390 Passes 319
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Den Bosch and MVV Maastricht couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Den Bosch at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Den Bosch had 53% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 47%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 3.01 to 1.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Den Bosch had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Den Bosch and 1.67 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht?

Den Bosch 1-1 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Den Bosch win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Den Bosch 42%, draw 26%, MVV Maastricht 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Den Bosch), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Den Bosch) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
23 Aug 2024
21:00 FC Oss vs Cambuur Analysis →
21:00 Emmen vs Helmond Sport Analysis →
21:00 De Graafschap vs Utrecht II Analysis →
21:00 ADO Den Haag vs Volendam Analysis →