De Graafschap 2-2 Utrecht II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 23 Aug 2024

📅23/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.59
Over 2.5
53%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.55
No
52%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.59
2-3 Goals
40%
2.02
4-5 Goals
24%
2.64
6+ Goals
13%
6.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.92
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.1
X/1
17%
4.1
X/2
10%
11.15
X/X
11%
6.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.55
2/2
8%
7.49
2/X
6%
15.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.55 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
60%
-5.6pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.4pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+4.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
35%
+12.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
65%
-12.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.2pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 22%
-4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -12%
1.86/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.44
-5% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
385 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
26.5 Crosses 15.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Utrecht II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.57 xG 0.72
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
399 Passes 272
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
03.05.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-2 HT 1-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
24.11.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
30.01.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-1 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
14.10.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 2-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
20.12.2021 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-2 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
24.09.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-2 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
2-2
AWAY Utrecht II
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Utrecht II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap and Utrecht II couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was De Graafschap at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, De Graafschap had 49% of the ball to Utrecht II's 51%, shots finished 13-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for De Graafschap and 1.17 for Utrecht II.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Utrecht II?

De Graafschap 2-2 Utrecht II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Utrecht II?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 54%, draw 23%, Utrecht II 23%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (De Graafschap), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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