De Graafschap 2-2 Utrecht II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.42
Draw
19%
4.81
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
3.17
Over 2.5
65%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.84
2-3 Goals
35%
2.05
4-5 Goals
30%
2.6
6+ Goals
16%
5.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.65
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.6
X/1
10%
3.75
X/2
5%
14.8
X/X
6%
7.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.45
2/2
10%
10.25
2/X
6%
18.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.45 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-4.5pp
19%
Draw
18%
+1.3pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.2pp
35%
Under 2.5
28%
+7.1pp
65%
Over 2.5
72%
-7.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.0pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -13%
1.86/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.62
-10% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
364 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 74%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
26.4 Crosses 14.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Utrecht II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.54 xG 0.76
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
381 Passes 276
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
33 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.11.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 2-0 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
30.01.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-1 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
14.10.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 2-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
20.12.2021 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-2 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
24.09.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-2 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
05.04.2021 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-1 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
2-2
AWAY Utrecht II
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 3
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Utrecht II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap and Utrecht II couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had De Graafschap at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, De Graafschap had 57% of the ball to Utrecht II's 43%, shots finished 13-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for De Graafschap and 0.83 for Utrecht II.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Utrecht II?

De Graafschap 2-2 Utrecht II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Utrecht II?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 62%, draw 19%, Utrecht II 19%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (De Graafschap) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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