MVV Maastricht 2-4 Den Bosch — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 16 Sep 2025

📅16/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
2.71
6+ Goals
12%
7.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.63
1/2
8%
24.1
1/X
7%
12.15
X/1
9%
6.06
X/2
12%
5.85
X/X
9%
5.36
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.5
2/2
18%
3.43
2/X
6%
12.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.5 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.7pp
38%
Away Win
38%
+0.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.7pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 42%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.34/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.02
+7% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +81%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
17.7 Crosses 18.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Den Bosch
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.45 xG 1.72
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
338 Passes 344
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
18.01.2025 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 5-0 HT 4-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
30.10.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-1 HT 1-1 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOK
23.08.2024 Den Bosch Den Bosch 1-1 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
23.03.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-0 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
15.09.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 3-2 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
27.01.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 3-3 HT 2-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
2-4
AWAY Den Bosch
1.73 xG 2.09
45% Ball Possession 55%
18 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 9
12 Corners 8
234 Passes 302
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 37
23 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Den Bosch
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Den Bosch beat MVV Maastricht 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 23% / 38%) promised a tight game; Den Bosch found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 45% of the ball to Den Bosch's 55%, shots finished 18-22, expected goals 1.73 to 2.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for MVV Maastricht and 1.33 for Den Bosch.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Den Bosch?

MVV Maastricht 2-4 Den Bosch in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 16/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Den Bosch?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 39%, draw 23%, Den Bosch 38%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (MVV Maastricht) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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