RKC Waalwijk 1-1 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 16 Sep 2025

RKC Waalwijk
1-1 HT 1-0
Vitesse
📅16/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

RKC Waalwijk vs Vitesse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.33
Draw
17%
4.95
Away
17%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.96
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.4
2-3 Goals
39%
2.1
4-5 Goals
23%
2.35
6+ Goals
14%
4.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.51
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.1
X/1
26%
4.07
X/2
7%
16.65
X/X
5%
8.86
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
18.0
2/2
7%
12.35
2/X
6%
20.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.0 — our 11% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
70%
-4.2pp
16%
Draw
17%
-0.5pp
17%
Away Win
13%
+4.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.4pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RKC Waalwijk v Vitesse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 16%
-12% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.60/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/2.00
-24% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
406 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
16.0 Crosses 23.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

RKC Waalwijk vs Vitesse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Vitesse
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.53 xG 1.71
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
267 Passes 411
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.10.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-1 HT 3-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOK
09.03.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-1 HT 1-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
16.09.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 0-2 HT 0-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
01.04.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
27.08.2022 Vitesse Vitesse 2-2 HT 0-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
20.03.2022 Vitesse Vitesse 1-2 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL

RKC Waalwijk 1-1 Vitesse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
1-1
AWAY Vitesse
0.79 xG 0.19
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
359 Passes 385
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RKC Waalwijk and Vitesse shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. RKC Waalwijk carried 66% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 49% of the ball to Vitesse's 51%, shots finished 11-3, expected goals 0.79 to 0.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RKC Waalwijk had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 0.83 for Vitesse.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs Vitesse?

RKC Waalwijk 1-1 Vitesse in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 16/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated a RKC Waalwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 66%, draw 16%, Vitesse 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RKC Waalwijk), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
16 Sep 2025
21:00 MVV Maastricht vs Den Bosch Analysis →
21:00 Helmond Sport vs Utrecht II Analysis →
21:00 FC Oss vs VVV-Venlo Analysis →